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After RS President Milorad Dodik openly refused to
sign the reform agenda for BiH designed to help the country prosper
and advance towards the EU, and after EU Enlargement Commissioner
Johannes Hahn canceled his visit to Sarajevo, the country found
itself in a deep crisis. “This means that the German-British
initiative for BiH has failed, says former High Representative and
international mediator in BiH, Christian Schwarz-Schilling.
Deutsche Welle: Mr. Schwarz-Schilling, Dodik
showed his hand and clearly indicated what he does not want. What
will the international community do now?
Christian Schwarz-Schilling: First, it will have
to pull itself together, analyze the new situation and consider what
steps to take. Because this is a major crisis. Chancellor Angela
Merkel’s visit, which has not yet been confirmed, will most likely
be called into question. What message could she deliver now when
everything the EU negotiated in BiH has collapsed? What will happen
to the economy, the economic and financial development in BiH? Like
the Federation, Republika Srpska is also facing bankruptcy which
could come soon. It is extremely important for the EU to help the
country, but this act makes it impossible. What will the people say,
who had so far been quiet, after they rebelled last year on February
7? Considering all this, the question is what will happen now to
BiH? The international community must understand that with its
current policies it will not change anything, or that serious unrest
will break out, or that the problems of this country will be passed
on to the next generation.
The international community has a powerful
mechanism in its hands. These are the Bonn powers. They were kept
precisely because they could be used in an emergency situation. Why
are the EU and the US reluctant to use them and impose the solution
for BiH and its advancement towards the EU?
Don’t ask me. I wanted to use them many times when
I was High Representative. I did manage to implement some, but back
then there was a strong political drive in Brussels to abolish the
OHR. Then it became clear that such interventions in BiH can be
implemented only through the OHR, because consequently certain
decision of the Security Council could also be used. Now these
powers could be reactivated. Because what we have been witnessing in
the last few years is an attempt to reduce the OHR authorities, up
to their total ineffectiveness and inefficiency.
Right now a PIC meeting is taking place. Everyone
thought that BiH politicians would sign a new European initiative,
thereby putting it into effect. High Representative Inzko said two
days ago: “Let’s get to work, let’s roll up our sleeves!” But that
was before the disaster, before it became clear. How the PIC will
react, I will find out in the evening.
How could have Dodik so openly refused to sign the
reform agenda?
You would have to ask him. I believe he does not
want the road to Europe. With his survival in power threatened
because of the problems with the majority in his own parliament,
Dodik decided obstruct the road to reform.
He couldn’t have acted any different, because this
is the only way for him to shut down the European track of BiH. This
all shows that in BiH he’s got completely different objectives. He
still claims there was no genocide Srebrenica, that he still
believes it and that he will always loudly repeated it. This is the
rhetoric he is using now in 2015, 20 years after the genocide. This
speaks to the fact that is intention is to obstruct. Whether this
obstruction is agreed with Russia, I can’t say. Dodik was the only
one who took part in the parade on May 9 in Moscow, marking the end
of World War II, and he was suitably received by Putin. All this
points to the fact that there is some alliance there. I’m not sure
Dodik would have had the nerve to act this way otherwise, because
right now Serbia is not interested in tensions with Republika Srpska
in BiH, which Dodik would like, as he said, to declare independent
in 2018.
Does this mean the end of the Steinmeier-Hammond
initiative?
At the moment it is nothing short of the end of
the British-German initiative for BiH.
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