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The Dayton question
That is the Dayton question. Is it better to
maintain the peaceful but unsatisfying status quo? Or would it be
better to let Dayton go and see what will happen? The RS has already
salami-sliced its way more than halfway there. It recently passed a
law negating the authority of Bosnian Constitutional Court.
Of course the RS might not become a new
Transnistria. It might instead become independent or the westernmost
province of Serbia. Its secession might also precipitate a series of
ethnic rebellions in Kosovo, Macedonia, and even in Serbia. That
could be disastrous.
But the more immediate question is what would
happen inside Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Brcko
The northeastern town of Brcko was the center of
gravity of the last Bosnian war. The reason there was a Dayton
negotiation was that the US forced a ceasefire to prevent the
Bosnian Federation (Bosniak and Croat) forces from taking it in the
fall of 1995. Banja Luka was about to fall. Ten days more would have
decided the fate of Brcko.
Answering the Dayton question requires imagining
what would happen with RS secession. My guess is that the RS sooner
rather than later will try to take over Brcko, because it can’t
survive intact without the northeast Bosnian town that links its two
wings.
The EUFOR troops responsible for preserving Bosnia
and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity lack the capability to
prevent an RS takeover. It is not clear whether forces loyal to the
Sarajevo government would be able to do so. That is a vital factor.
If they can, then the RS will suffer a terminal defeat and a new
negotiation for a more functional constitution would become
feasible.
If Sarajevo can’t prevent an RS takeover of Brcko,
the RS could secede but the World Bank, IMF, Western governments and
investors would cut it off, forcing it into bankruptcy and further
into the arms of Russia and Serbia. That would be a source of
Schadenfreude for some, but it is not what I would call a winning
wicket.
Win win
Far better would be an outcome that blocks
secession but still forces a renegotiation of the Dayton agreements.
The West should bankrupt the RS before it secedes rather than after.
All Western assistance to the RS should come to a halt until all RS
moves towards secession, including its law negating the authority of
the Bosnian Constitutional Court, are reversed. That would open an
opportunity for a rescue effort, executed through Sarajevo, on
condition that the constitution be renegotiated.
The EU and US would need to insist on a new
constitution that eliminates the elaborate powersharing arrangements
in the Dayton version. One person one vote and strong protection for
individual political and economic rights are the ideal. But a new
constitution should also provide strong protection for group rights
when it comes to education, language, religion, and culture. I might
prefer a constitution that eliminates the two entities and cantons
in the Federation, but that is for Bosnians to decide.
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