Convincing
victory of the pro-European political option
Sonja Biserko
The key result of snap parliamentary, local and
provincial elections held on the 11th of May 2008 in Serbia is an
unexpected and convincing victory of the Coalition for European Serbia
spearheaded by President Boris Tadic. Democratic Party won 103 seats,
the Serb Radical Party got 77 seats, Coalition of Democratic Party of
Serbia and New Serbia won 30 seats, the Socialist Party of
Serbia-Association of Retirees of Serbia got 20 seats, the Liberal
Democratic Party of Serbia got 13 seats, the Hungarian Coalition won 4
seats, Bosniaks got 2 seats and Albanians of Presevo Valley got 1 seat.
Three, key factors contributed to such an electoral outcome: signing of
the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, the
Italian company FIAT's decision to sign a preliminary agreement on
co-operation with Kragujevac-based car plant ZASTAVA and perhaps, most
decisively, the general mood of electorate which suddenly became very
-rational.
The above mentioned result is in fact a great triumph
for the Democratic Party which for the first time since its inception
became the strongest parliamentary party, thanks primarily to its recent
tilt to the pro-European stance. In fact, during its cohabitation with
the Democratic Party of Serbia, Democratic Party nearly lost its
identity, forged by Dr. Zoran Djindjic. Presidential elections held in
early 2008 demonstrated that Boris Tadic emerged victorious only thanks
to his tilt to the pro-European option, and his distancing from the
populist camp. Such a shift gained utmost importance after the signing
of the SAA. It bears underscoring that only a month ago Boris Tadic
rejected the possibility of the SAA signing for he deemed such an act
tantamount to the EU interference into the Serb internal affairs.
However, his last-minute change of heart in that regard was a great step
forward cum turnaround, in view of the totality of the Serb political
context and mood.
The SAA additionally galvanized support for the
pro-European option. Citizens' fear of victory of the Radical Party and
closing of economic prospects of Serbia also played an important role in
yesterday's parliamentary elections outcome. Namely many economic
experts were predicting Serbia's return to the Nineties, that is
hyperinflation, squandering of the state foreign currency reserves and
citizens'savings for meeting the social needs, as announced by the
Radical Party campaign.
The first, post-election statements of Boris Tadic
indicate his resolve to continue along the pro-European pathway. But, in
parallel Tadic has not renounced his five principles, on which rested
the policy of the former government. One of those principles is that
Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia. And that principle shall be most
problematic in relations between the Democratic Party and the EU. Tadic
shall use that principle, which is backed by the Serb Academy of Arts
and Sciences to insist on partition of Kosovo in the 12:88 ration. In
parallel, one may expect tensions because of the DP's problematic stance
on Republika Srpska. Namely, in the last week of his campaign Boris
Tadic visited Republika Srpska in a bid to get across to citizens the
message that for Serbia Republika Srpska was still important. Milorad
Dodik openly backed Tadic and Democratic Party in the last elections.
Under the leadership of Tomislav Nikolic the Serb
Radical Party reached its peak, but this time around also failed to win
the elections, which obviously increased the frustration of that party
and its leader. Hence his threatening statement in the immediate
aftermath of disclosure of election results that the Serb Radical Party
would form the government with the Democratic Party of Serbia and
Socialist Party of Serbia did not come as a surprise. Nikolic thus
sharply responded to the post-election statement of Boris Tadic to the
effect that "I shall not allow the formation of a coalition without DP,
for it would be a return to the Nineties." Though in its campaign the
Serb Radical Party urged a social state and reliance on the Russia's
backing, it failed to convince the Serb citizens of its promise-keeping
potential.
Democratic Party of Serbia fared ill. Democratic Party
of Serbia-New Serbia Coalition won 11.3% of votes (or 30 seats) which
indicates a continuing decline in its popularity rating. Vojislav
Koštunica's campaign amply manifested his fanaticism and his virulently
anti-European stance. His campaign was exclusively based on the slogan
"Kosovo is Serbia.". By dint of Kosovo issue he tried to mobilize
national feelings to bolster up his uncertain political future. However
it turned out that Kosovo was not in fact such "a glue", notably when
citizens were offered other options, especially the EU one.
Though the key media were controlled by the Democratic
Party of Serbia (Radio Television Serbia, daily Politika, tabloids,
etc.) it turned out that thus orchestrated media anti-European campaign
was not sufficient to ensure Kostunica's success. That failure happened
despite the fact that behind Kostunica was the whole conservative camp,
namely part of the Serb Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Serb Orthodox
Church and numerous tycoons (to ensure their positions they financially
backed all the political options!), that is, all those still adhering to
the idea of the Greater Serbia project. Large part of the academic elite
backed Kostunica-engineered concept of "neutral Serbia with reliance on
Russia.". Energy deal with Russia was devised as a counterpoint to the
point of the EU's SAA, but as it turned out, it was obviously not- a
winning card.
Cedomir Jovanovic's Liberal Democratic Party won 5.4%
of votes, which was less than expected, but nonetheless helped that
young party cross the census anew and thus prove that it had a stable
pool of voters. Essentially Cedomir Jovanovic is a moral victor of the
last elections, for thanks to his urging and engagement the tilt to the
pro-EU option was effected and issues once raised by Zoran Djindjic were
tackled again. Jovanovic has acted as a principal "corrective" for
Democratic Party since assassination of Prime Minister Djindjic and he
is to be fully credited for Democratic Party's recent re-embracing of
the pro-European option.
Results of the May elections have a strategic impact
on and importance for both Serbia and the region. Serbia has in fact
thus crossed the treshold which enabled it to enter an utterly different
context. Stabilization and Association Agreement finally ensures the
framework which could jump-start a genuine transition in Serbia and also
paves the way for the entire Serb society to assume responsibility for
its future. Prospects opened by the EU are the only genuine mobilizing
force which had amply manifested its reach and effects in other
post-Communist societies. The opportunity provided by these elections
very much depends on the political skills of President Tadic to broker
coalition that will be able to translate these results in reallity.
Civil society (or part thereof ) played a key role in
lobbying for an early signing of the Stabilization and Association
Agreement, that is the SAA's signing before the hand-over of Ratko
Mladic. The principal argument in the pro-SAA signing campaign was that
the pressure piled by the Hague Tribunal was grist to the mill of
Kostunica anti-EU stance. Vojislav Koštunica is a representative of the
Serb radical nationalism which the West failed to recognize as such on
time. Only after the SAA signing he was totally unmasked.
The active EU's role continues to be of primary
importance for further developments in Serbia, for it has become evident
there is no alternative for the EU mobilizing force. EU foreign policy
must be more coordinated and more concrete in providing direct help not
only to the government, but also to the civic society and other segments
of the society pro-European oriented (such as small and medium
enterprizes). The electorate proved to be more mature then the political
class and should therefore be directly supporrted in order to enhance
the pressure on the government to take more decisive steps towards SAA
goals. Serbia cannot be democratized without the EU backing, and
moreover the overhaul of the Serb Army was/is not possible without its
partnership with NATO. The US should also continue to play the role in
Serbia, primarily by finalizing the Kosovo independence and full
integration of Bosnia. |