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Kosovo prides itself on being the most
pro-American country on earth. I don’t really know if it is true.
Pew does not include Kosovo in its polling. There Vietnam holds the
top position. But it is only 84% favorable to the US. I wouldn’t be
surprised if Kosovo could equal or beat that.
There are good reasons for Kosovo’s pro-American
lean. More than 90% of the population is Albanian. Most of them
credit the United States for forcing Serbian Slobodan Milosevic
strongman out of Kosovo in 1999. Even the Serbs and other minorities
in Kosovo have some reason to be positive about the US, since NATO
troops have protected them for more than 20 years. Whether they
would admit it however is another question, since Serbia’s attitude
toward the US is equivocal at best.
This week it was revealed that an American
prosecutor at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague has filed
charges against Kosovo President Thaci, former Assembly Speaker
Veseli, and eight others. It is inconceivable that the American
envoy handling Kosovo and Serbia, Richard Grenell, was not informed
in advance. He did nothing to stop the revelation, which was a break
with the court’s normal procedure, and quickly welcomed Thaci’s
decision not to come to Washington for talks with Serbian President
Vucic this weekend.
I have nothing against charges for war crimes and
crimes against humanity, provided there is sufficient evidence that
can be presented in court. If confirmed by one of the judges, the
President, Veseli, and the other indictees should resign and go to
The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj
has done (several times).
But this incident confirms what I have been
telling my Kosovar colleagues for over a year: to diversify their
sources of support. The United States is simply no long a reliable
advocate of the statehood, independence, and sovereignty of Kosovo.
The Trump Administration has for some time leaned in Serbia’s
direction on major issues: land and people swaps, tariffs Kosovo
levied in retaliation for Serbia’s derecognition campaign, and the
leadership of Kosovo’s government, which was changed as the result
of American pressure.
The new prime minister, Avdullah Hoti, has also
cancelled his appearance in Washington. This is understandable. He
has only a one vote margin in the parliament and owes his
premiership to President Thaci, who blocked new elections after the
previous government fell to a no-confidence vote. Hoti has outlined
a clear and I would say compelling platform for the talks with
Belgrade, but he is not a political heavyweight and needs support
from two-thirds of the parliament for anything he agrees with
Serbia. Going to Washington would have left him exposed at home
during a crucial juncture in Kosovo politics.
The hour is late, but I believe that Kosovo needs
to find some new friends. Germany is a vital supporter, not only
because of its weight within the EU but also because it has been
unalterably opposed to the land and people swaps the Americans have
been open to. Japan, seeing China court Serbia, has upped its game
with Kosovo. That’s good.
But most of all Kosovo needs to crack the code on
getting the European countries that do not recognize its sovereignty
to change their minds. The European Union negotiator for the
Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, promised repeatedly that Slovakia would
recognize Kosovo while he was that country’s Foreign Minister. The
time has come for him to deliver. EU High Representative Borrell,
formerly Foreign Minister of the cardinal non-recognizer, Spain,
should also be told that the time has come for Madrid to realize
that recognition of Kosovo would in no way undermine Spain’s
position on Catalonia, unless Madrid regards itself as analogous to
Milosevic’s Belgrade.
If Donald Trump goes down to already likely defeat
in November, Kosovo can expect the Biden Administration to return to
the traditional American support for its statehood, sovereignty, and
independence. But Kosovo will still be a small country in a world
increasingly dominated by geopolitics and geoeconomics. The
Americans may be more supportive under Biden, but they will also
have their hands full with other issues. Bandwagoning with the US
paid dividends once upon a time, but sovereign and independent
states don’t need to stay in love. Kosovo should hedge its bets.
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